Short communication: best prediction of 305-day lactation yields with regional and seasonal effects.

In the United States, lactation yields are calculated using best prediction (BP), a method in which test-day (TD) data are compared with breed- and parity-specific herd lactation curves that do not account for differences among regions of the country or seasons of calving. Complete data from 538,090 lactations of 348,123 Holstein cows with lactation lengths between 250 and 500 d, records made in a single herd, at least 5 reported TD, and twice-daily milking were extracted from the national dairy database and used to construct regional and seasonal lactation curves. Herds were assigned to 1 of 7 regions of the country, individual lactations were assigned to 3-mo seasons of calving, and lactation curves for milk, fat, and protein yields were estimated by parity group for regions, seasons, and seasons within regions. Multiplicative pre-adjustment factors (MF) also were computed. The resulting lactation curves and MF were tested on a validation data set of 891,806 lactations from 400,000 Holstein cows sampled at random from the national dairy database. Mature-equivalent milk, fat, and protein yields were calculated using the standard and adjusted curves and MF, and differences between 305-d mature-equivalent yields were tested for significance. Yields calculated using 50-d intervals from 50 to 250 d in milk (DIM) and using all TD to 500 DIM allowed comparisons of predictions for records in progress (RIP). Differences in mature-equivalent milk ranged from 0 to 51 kg and were slightly larger for first-parity than for later parity cows. Milk and components yields did not differ significantly in any case. Correlations of yields for 50-d intervals with those using all TD were similar across analyses. Yields for RIP were slightly more accurate when adjusted for regional and seasonal differences.